Enter your numbers below. Your edge isn't a single figure — it's a distribution of outcomes the same odds can produce, most of them uncomfortable.
Win rate — 40%
How sure are you? — certain
~50 trades ≈ ±10% · ~150 ≈ ±6% · ~500 ≈ ±3%
Loss size (R)
Average winner (R)
Trades taken
Show me
The edgeOne set of numbers becomes a spread of outcomes.
Expectancy per trade
I can only show you the distribution. You're the one that has to trade through it.
One edge, every path
The same edge, run again and again. Every track is a valid outcome — none is broken. This is variance doing what variance does.
Drag across to zoom · double-tap or double-click to reset
Press Run again to re-roll the same edge. Notice the gap between the luckiest and unluckiest path — that's what almost nobody shows you.
DrawdownHow deep the losing stretches run, and when one is worth investigating.
How deep underwater
Measured from each new high — the drop, not the altitude. Zones mark when a drawdown is worth investigating.
How rough — 90th-percentile path
75th = fairly rough · 99th = near-worst but still valid
Drag across to zoom · double-tap or double-click to reset
median pathrough pathgreen = typical · amber = rare · red = investigate
Red doesn't guarantee broken — it means investigate. It's set at this edge's 99th-percentile drawdown, so a working edge still lands there ~1 run in 100.
One caveat: this assumes the numbers you entered are true. The most common way an edge "breaks" isn't a drawdown at all — it's that it was never as strong as assumed. Only a real, logged record separates the two.
The trade-offWhat a realistic edge looks like — and where a claim becomes a sales pitch.
The trade-off
Win rate and reward:risk aren't independent — to break even, a bigger reward lets you win less often. But break-even is only the floor. The shaded bands show, roughly, where real edges live and where a claim crosses into fantasy.
Realistic · 0 to +0.3R · where sustainable edges liveExceptional · +0.3 to +0.6R · real but rareImprobable · +0.6 to +1.0R · verify hardFantasy · above +1.0R · sales territory
Reward:risk — 3:1
Break-even win rate — 25%
Test a claim you've seen — “the pitch”
These bands are a rough consensus from real, logged records — not a law of physics. The point isn't the exact line; it's that sustainable edges are smaller than the internet implies, and the further above break-even a claim sits, the more proof it needs before you believe it.