The trade-off
Win rate and reward-to-risk work together. A larger average reward reduces the win rate required to break even. The expectancy and break-even figures are mathematical results based on the inputs you provide. The shaded bands are my own working interpretation of how much evidence I would want before trusting a claim of that strength.
Test a claim you've seen — “the pitch”
break-even line
break-even (sliders)
the pitch
Plausible range0 – 0.3Rneeds a large, logged sample
Unusually strong0.3 – 0.6Rneeds a large, logged sample
Exceptional claim0.6 – 1.0Rshort samples may mislead
Extraordinary claimabove 1.0Rrequires extraordinary evidence
Break-even — what it takes just to not lose
The expectancy and break-even calculations are mathematical results based on the numbers you enter. The placement and names of the shaded bands are my own working interpretation. They are not statistically derived boundaries, industry standards or judgments about any particular trader, strategy or product. Their purpose is to show that stronger claims should require stronger evidence. Hover a band for the full meaning.