Take a win rate and a reward:risk from a claim you've seen and drag them onto the map. It shows what that combination implies as an edge — and where that sits against what real, logged records actually sustain.
The trade-off
Win rate and reward:risk aren't independent — to break even, a bigger reward lets you win less often. The shaded bands show, roughly, where real edges live and where a claim crosses into fantasy.
Test a claim you've seen — “the pitch”
break-even line
break-even (sliders)
the pitch
Realistic0 – 0.3Rwhere sustainable edges live
Exceptional0.3 – 0.6Rrare, but real
Improbable0.6 – 1.0Rusually a hot streak, not an edge
Fantasyabove 1.0Ralmost never real
Break-even — what it takes just to not lose
The band cut-offs are our own estimate of what real, logged records tend to sustain — a rough guide, not a law, and no claim about any particular person or product. It reads the numbers you enter, nothing more. Hover a band for the full meaning.