Manage uncertainty through evidence and repeatable process rather than emotional reaction.
I'm an equities and index-futures reversal trader. I make free tools and short videos about variance, execution and decision-making under uncertainty — the parts of trading that are simple on paper and much harder to live through in real time.
A winning trade isn't automatically a good decision, and a losing trade isn't automatically a mistake. The work is learning to judge your process across a distribution, rather than one outcome at a time.
No signals, no strategy for sale, and no promise that any of this will make you money.
See it for yourself.
These free tools let you change the assumptions, run the numbers and see what variance, probability, trading claims and planned risk actually look like.
Edge Simulator
Run the same assumed edge through randomized paths and see how different the results can look.
Open tool →Edge Experience
See a fixed trading edge play out one simulated day at a time. You won't know when the wins or losses are coming.
Open tool →Pitch Check
Calculate the expectancy implied by a claimed win rate and reward-to-risk, then see how much evidence a claim that strong should require.
Open tool →The thinking behind The Standard Trader
Trading is not an exercise in certainty. It is an exercise in making decisions when the outcome cannot yet be known.
Read the article →Videos and posts
Short videos and posts about variance, execution, decision quality and trading under uncertainty.
Find me online →Stay in touch.
Social media accounts can disappear without much warning. If that ever happens to mine, this is how I'll let you know where I went. I'll also occasionally email when I publish a new tool, a longer piece, or something else I think is worth sharing. There's no fixed schedule.
Want another perspective on your own trading?
I also offer one-to-one sessions where we use your data, decisions and execution to work out what may actually need attention. The goal is to help you develop a clearer understanding of your own trading.
Learn about sessions →